Taming the Beast 

Assessing the current scenario in Iran and looking to a hopeful future

The Islamic Republic in Iran refuses to go down quietly.

Hitting out

Certainly, it has been significant decapitated, with the ayatollah Khamenei and well over 1,000 members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and security forces having apparently been killed by U.S. and Israeli strikes so far.

Yet it is now hitting out at everything it can reach, just like a wounded animal or a small child in a tantrum. Airports and hotels across the region are included in its targets, as well as the more expected U.S. airbases.

There is, of course, method in this madness. Iran had made plans for what would happen in the case of the killing of top officials – those lower down the command structure had a list of targets to aim for in this case, and automatic promotion was planned to ensure that key command positions didn’t remain empty.
But absolutely no-one can predict with any certainty what will happen next.

Iran’s destruction

There are those who argue that the attacks were unjustified because they were both illegal and because Iran did not pose any ‘imminent’ threat. Yet this is a regime that has sponsored widescale terror around the globe over decades, including in the UK. Without Iran’s support of Hamas, the October 7^th attacks on Israel would likely never have happened – and neither the destructive ensuing war in Gaza. 

This is a regime that has sponsored widescale terror around the globe over decades, including in the UK. 

Iran’s minions the Houthis have attacked Western shipping – as well as creating war and misery for the residents of Yemen. Iran continues to supply weapons to Russia, helping to perpetuate the war in Ukraine. Efforts were still ongoing for the regime to become a nuclear power – a terrifying prospect.

And of course, the Iranian regime’s suppression of its own people has been well documented over the decades – with the brutal killing of protestors at the beginning of the year reaching a potential death toll of up to 40,000 (and possibly much higher). Realistically, the excessive force deployed may have been worse because of Donald Trump’s encouragement to the Iranian people to keep on protesting and his statement that help was coming. For it was only after that point that the internet blackout and the bloody nation-wide massacre occurred.

Can of worms

Of course, many would also justifiably argue against the attacks by Israel and the U.S., with its underlying aim of regime change, as it risks opening a can of worms worse than the Iranian regime itself. This is an extremely valid argument – experiences in Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan prove the enormous difficulty in creating a stable government following a removal of the existing power structure.

Why were Western nations so convinced that straightforward regime change would not only be possible, but would be successful, before invading Iraq and Afghanistan? It would, quite simply, have to be because of much more positive experiences in twentieth century history.

The concept of democracy is, in practice, anathema to Islam – and these countries have for centuries been predominantly Muslim.

From the defeated Third Reich emerged, with the support of Allied powers, a peace loving and prosperous West Germany. The fall of communism behind the Iron Curtain took a long time, but when it happened, it was incredible, with a remarkable, peaceable transfer of power in the end, as communist tyrants fell like dominos after large demonstrations.

Alien to democracy

So why has regime change been so unsuccessful elsewhere? To put it bluntly, it’s because of religion. In West Germany, and in Hungary, Poland and all the other countries once behind the Iron Curtain, Christianity was embedded deep into the culture. Yes, it had been repressed in each of these cases, but it was still alive – and quickly flourished.

In the case of the former communist countries, efforts by Bible smuggler Brother Andrew and others helped to keep the underground Church encouraged and fed in the times of darkness. The faith then became quickly part of the restored cultures – and Christianity could play its significant part in the emergence of democracy.
In Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, etc, however, the situation has been very different. The concept of democracy is, in practice, anathema to Islam – and these countries have for centuries been predominantly Muslim.

Sometimes ‘secular’ leaders have been in charge – but these still need to be Muslim, even if they have often needed to resort to strongman tactics to keep the more radical Islamists at bay. But within Islam itself is the understanding that Islamic ideology should be the overarching ruler, a theocratic dictatorship with Sharia law at its heart – at which point we see the most repressive regimes, such as the ayatollahs of Iran and the Taliban in Afghanistan.

Within Islam itself is the understanding that Islamic ideology should be the overarching ruler, a theocratic dictatorship with Sharia law at its heart 

Islam the beast

The conquest of territory and subjugation of the people to ‘submit’ to Islamic rule is in the very DNA of Islam, from its very beginnings. It is no wonder that, after many generations, the people of these lands are unable to transition to a stable, democratic government. Turkey could be seen as an exception – it is even in NATO, and for a considerable period, had a secular government – but that has not lasted, and under Erdogan, the country has been rapidly reverting to an Islamic state once again.

I earlier compared the Iranian regime lashing out to a wounded animal. The reality is that Islam is itself a spiritual power – a ‘beast’, to use the apocalyptic imagery of Revelation 13 and Daniel. (This is, to make clear, that the imagery of ‘beasts’ is used of empires and spiritual powers, not of individual people.) In taking on Iran’s ruling clerical powers, Trump and Netanyahu are not just taking on a rogue state, but a spiritual power that has held sway over the Middle East and many other areas for over a millennium. In Islamist terms, geographically, once an area is subjugated to Muslim rule, it must always remain so – and this comes from the spiritual power behind Islam.

To the best of my knowledge – no Islamist regime has ever been toppled from within, by its own people. Secular rulers of Muslim countries have been toppled, but not those who base their legitimacy on their faith, in terms of a caliphate. The Crusades were an attempt to retake territory taken violently by the Muslims – but they didn’t go well. The Spanish under Ferdinand and Isabella were able to complete the reconquest of the Iberian Peninsula in 1492, but this was after literally centuries of Muslim rule. The Ottoman Empire was finally toppled during the brutal First World War. In more recent times, Islamic State (ISIS) took enormous effort to defeat recently – though it still remains a significant global security threat.

Will it succeed?

The big question for us now is, will Iran be any different? There’s no doubt in my mind that the Iranian leaders deserve to be toppled. The ‘legality’ of the move is a distraction – international law is not well designed for such a scenario. But the question of whether the attack will succeed is the important one.

With superior might, and enough determination (and, dare I say it, the help of God), the U.S. and Israel may succeed.

First, Trump and Netanyahu seem to have underestimated the Iranian Republic’s determination to survive. It is based on an Islamist philosophy that will willingly face martyrdom rather than give anything up – one of the potential successors to the ayatollah is one that sees the death of half the world’s population a price worth paying for the subjugation of the world to Islam. Nonetheless, with superior might, and enough determination (and, dare I say it, the help of God), the U.S. and Israel may succeed.

If they are successful in toppling the regime, what then? Civil war is one possible outcome – both with remaining weapon-toting IRCG members seeking to disrupt any settlement, and several potential separatist movements that could wreak havoc. A swift reassertion of power by Islamists is another possibility.

Christian revival

However, there is something different in the Iranian situation that gives us some hope. Islam has long been in retreat in the hearts and minds of the Persian people. Vast numbers have come to faith in Christ as the underground Church has swelled dramatically in recent decades, countless thousands opening their hearts to Jesus Christ. A phenomenal move of God’s Spirit has been sweeping Iran for years, and continues to do so.

On the other hand, large numbers have rejected Islam for atheism. How many from these two groups have been killed following the uprisings, we simply do not know. But one cannot but wonder whether Islam still has the strength of numbers to stay in control? It is not impossible that it has become sufficiently weakened, and that the people could create a stable, thriving state from the ruins – one that allows for true freedom of religion and speech, and that allows its citizens to prosper.

Freedom and prosperity

At this moment, only God knows. If an apocalyptic, Ezekiel 37-type war preceding the end of this age is imminent, then I would expect this initiative to fail, and the regime to cling on to power. But it may not be – indeed, that scenario could be many decades or even centuries hence.

It is not impossible that ... the people could create a stable, thriving state from the ruins – one that allows for true freedom of religion and speech, and that allows its citizens to prosper.

But it is certainly not wrong to pray that Trump’s gamble will succeed, and thus for the freedom of the Iranian people – many of whom are our brothers and sisters in Christ, many of them also being friends and family of the thousands within our UK churches that have sought asylum here.

I therefore pray that the regime will topple, and that Iran can become a place where people can live freely and where they will prosper, and that the Church there will similarly be able to grow and flourish.

This may not yet, however, be the time – so our final prayer should always be, may God’s will, and His alone, be done.

(Top image - Israeli attack on Tehran - Mehr News Agency - wikipedia)